The aim of this document is to provide a forecasting tool that facilitates understanding economic developments in a timely manner. This is pursued through the Bridge Model approach by using it to relate a large set of monthly indicators to Chilean GDP and its main components. The outcome is a...

This article is an empirical analysis on the optimal level of disaggregation by sectors and the best econometric strategy in order to forecast Mexican inflation. We compare different disaggregate modeling strategies based on: 1) univariate ARIMA models, 2) panel data methodology, 3) vector error...

Analizamos las calificaciones de deuda soberana a partir de modelos logit para una muestra de 53 países entre 2000 y 2010. Dado que la literatura sobre el tema omite un tratamiento diferencial para variables explicativas no estacionarias incorporamos un factor de tendencia que interactúa con...

This paper analyses the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate pass-through to prices comparing the results from a Semi-structural Model, VAR models, nonlinear regressions and the Kalman Filter. This paper also discusses the relation between a set of macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange...

Banking interest rates are closely related to monetary policy transmission than overnight interest rates. Since overnight interest rates are used as policy instrument since September 2007 by Uruguayan Central Bank, it is important to quantify the extent to which overnight interest rates are...

Inflation expectations are key unobservable variables for decision-making, especially in managing monetary policy. Understand how to formulate them, if they are rational or adaptive is vital. This study answers these questions through a panel data analysis of the micro data from the inflation...

Inflation expectations are key unobservable variables for decision-making, especially in managing monetary policy. Understand how to formulate them, if they are rational or adaptive is vital. This study answers these questions through a panel data analysis of the micro data from the inflation...

The Central Bank of Uruguay started to an interest rate instrument for monetary policy in September 2009. This paper develops a Small Structural Model for the Uruguayan economy which contributes to the understanding of the channels through which monetary policy operates under a flexible...