After the slow pace recorded in 2014, growth of the Austrian economy is likely to remain modest also in early 2015. Leading indicators to date give no substantial hint for a revival of business activity. Hence, the conditions for a cyclical recovery during the first half of the year are hardly...

Austria's real GDP contracted by 0.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. As a result of this development and consistent with the dismal picture painted by the leading indicators for the fourth quarter of 2014, a technical recession lies within the realms of...

The WIFO Business Cycle Survey serves as an important early-indication tool for the economic situation in Austria. Using a Markov regime-switching model, it is possible to determine at an early point in time whether the business cycle is in its upward or downward mode. Regime probabilities are...

Economic output stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter, according to WIFO Quarterly National Accounts. Compared with a year before, the decline was 0.2 percent. For 2014 as a whole, economic growth was 0.3 percent. The slight increase in the impetus provided...

Global economic developments have been uneven, but activity has recently been robust notably in large economies such as the USA and the UK. In the euro area, by contrast, momentum has been muted. The Austrian economy stagnated in the second half of 2014. Given the somewhat more positive economic...

Austria's real GDP contracted by 0.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. As a result of this development and consistent with the dismal picture painted by the leading indicators for the fourth quarter of 2014, a technical recession lies within the realms of...

Short-term prospects for the Austrian economy have little changed since the last revision of the WIFO forecast three months ago. Output in the first quarter 2014 grew as expected, albeit somewhat less than in the fourth quarter 2013. Latest leading indicators have been slightly less strong than...

When dealing with credit booms driven by capital inflows, monetary authorities in emerging markets are often reluctant to raise interest rates, as they fear that an increase attracts even more capital and appreciates the currency. A number of countries therefore use reserve requirements as an...

This article analyses the effects of government expenditures on German business cycle fluctuations by means of an estimated DSGE model based on low frequency oscillations. The results highlight that fiscal policy has a strong impact on the amplitude of fluctuations while hardly any on the...

Real GDP in Austria expanded by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter. The upturn did not accelerate further, but it did strengthen. Economic growth, which is buttressed by broad-based demand, is increasingly receiving stimulus from abroad. Global economic...