This book explores the key issues relating to links between exchange rate instability and domestic inflation, including real exchange rate and interest rate manifestations, and the co-variability of exchange rates and commodity prices. The common theme throughout is the behaviour of asset prices...

Professor Taylor and Professor Manzur offer in this volume a selection of published articles by leading scholars which are representative of recent key developments in this area of study.

This paper presents a general optimization framework to forecast put and call option prices by exploiting the volatility of the options prices. The approach is flexible in that different objective functions for predicting the underlying volatility can be modified and adapted in the proposed...

This paper provides a new test of the efficiency of the currency option markets for four major currencies -- British Pound, Euro, Swiss Frank and Japanese Yen vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. The approach is to simulate trading strategies to see if the well-accepted no-arbitrage condition of put-call...

This paper uses a new measure of real exchange rates as an indicator of international competitiveness. This new measure involves defining all prices and exchange rates on an appropriately weighted basket of currencies rather than a single currency. The measure is applied to the data for Japan,...

This paper focuses on the effect of import protection on the response of the real exchange rate to capital flows. The central hypothesis is that barriers to imports blunt the expenditure and production shifting effects of changes in relative prices, and hence the ability of the real exchange...

This paper focuses on the role of technical analysis in signalling the timing of stock market entry and exit. Test statistics are introduced to test the performance of the most established of the trend followers, the Moving Average, and the most frequently used counter-trend indicator, the...

The failure of strict purchasing power parity to hold in the 1970s can be explained by the preponderance of the real shocks which involve large changes in sectoral relative prices. Previous work has attempted to measure these effects by using proxies for the prices of traded and nontraded goods....