Deviations of national industrial production indexes from trend explain time variation in excess returns on the G7 countries' stock markets. This paper highlights that this finding is driven by a global, common component in the national production gaps. The global component is not a mirror image...

Answer: The business cycle.

This paper empirically studies the predictability of emerging markets’ stock returns by business cycle variables and the role of developed markets’ business cycle dynamics in this respect. The evidence shows that the link between business cycles and future stock market returns among emerging...

This paper builds a model of a sovereign borrower that has access to credit from private sector creditors and an IFI. Private sector creditors and the IFI offer different debt contracts that are modelled based on the institutional frameworks of these two types of debt. We analyze the decisions...

We study how 22 donors allocate their bilateral aid among 147 recipient countries over the 1970- 2004 period to investigate whether changes in the international aid architecture?at the international and country level?have led to changes in behavior. We find that after the fall of the Berlin...

Afghanistan’s economy continued to perform strongly under the staff-monitored program, resulting in rapid economic growth, inflation declining to single-digit levels, and the international reserves position strengthening further. At the same time, the authorities implemented key...

A 28-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Dominican Republic was introduced against the global recession. The main objective of the program is to limit the procyclicality of policies. The countercyclical macroeconomic program improved confidence and fostered aggregate demand. Monetary policy...

In this study, owing to the global financial crisis, a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Dominican Republic was approved. The aim is to limit the procyclical policies in the short-term and discussions focused on policies necessary to ensure that the end-2011 and 2011 targets are observed....

Kosovo’s economic performance has strengthened considerably, but structural deficiencies undermine export sector development and prospects for sustainable growth. The program seeks to restore fiscal sustainability and safeguard financial sector stability. Restoring fiscal sustainability...

In April 2009, the Boards of Executive Directors of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed that Côte d’Ivoire had met the requirements for reaching the decision point under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)...