Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in … recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap …

multiplier and output losses associated with fiscal consolidations to uncertainty over model parameters. I find that, in normal … times, the fiscal multiplier can be expected to lie between 0.1 and 0.5, with a central estimate of 0.3. Uncertainty over …

This paper is an empirical investigation of uncertainty in the Euro Zone as well as the US. It conducts a factor … analysis of uncertainty measures starting in 2001 until the end of 2011. For this purpose I use survey-based data provided by … implied volatility of stock market movements. Each measure shows an increase in uncertainty during the last years marked by …

The authors study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, the authors first estimate tax and spending processes for the U …

environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker?s point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as … uncertainty and the choice of the selected loss function, the recommendations for monetary policy can be noticeably different …