We develop a learning rule that generalises the well known fading memory learning in the sense that the weights attached to the available time series data are not constant and are updated in light of the forecast error(s). The underlying idea is that confidence in the available data will be low...

We estimate in this paper a non probabilistic Markovien model of stocks prices with an evolutionary selection of heterogeneous strategies. We chose to proceed by estimation relating on 27 companies from the CAC 40 and the composite index corresponding to these 27 companies to avoid the risk of...

We estimate in this paper a non probabilistic Markovien model of stock prices with an evolutionary selection of heterogeneous strategies. It is a model proposed by Brock and Hommes (1997, 1998) and improved later by Boswijk and al. (2007). Indeed, the latter propose one of the few estimations...

We build a model in which asset prices are expectationally driven and agents forecast future prices hinging on a combination of fundamental value, trend and inertia. The model has a unique steady state and we investigate its stability. In particular the amount of behavioural heterogeneity in the...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s external position remains strong. Boosted by investment income, the current account surplus widened in 2006 to nearly 4 percent of Japan’s GDP, despite a shrinking trade balance. Financial outflows also picked up, reflecting...

This paper proposes a price-based measure to mitigate the destabilizing impact of the volatility of global capital movements on the domestic economy of a country pursuing sound economic policies. The measure is a withholding tax on all private capital inflows, with a credit and refund provision...

The objective of this paper is to discuss the key issues relating to the development of local corporate bond markets. We examine the requirements for local corporate bond market development, and compare and contrast experiences across both mature and emerging markets. We suggest that core...

We examine the determinants of capital flows to four developing countries during the 1990s using an explicitly disequilibrium econometric framework in which the supply and demand for capital are not necessarily equal and the actual amount of the flow is determined by the ‘short side’ of the...