We use a no-arbitrage, cost-of-carry pricing model to examine whether equity spot and futures markets are cointegrated. A stock index and its futures price should be cointegrated if the cost of carry is stationary. Otherwise, the appropriate cointegrating relationship is trivariate and includes...

We examine returns and ending wealth in portfolios selected from 1,000 large U.S. stocks over a 20-year holding period. Shortfall risk, the possibility of ending wealth being below a target, is a useful metric for long horizon investors and is consistent with the Safety First criterion. Density...

We use a multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity model (M-GARCH) to examine three stock indexes and their associated futures prices: the New York Stock Exchange Composite, Standard and Poor's 500, and Toronto 35. The North American context is significant because markets in...