We evaluate the extent to which the explanatory power detected in the term structure in different markets and countries can actually be used to produce sensible forecasts of future short-term interest rates. Specifically, in spite of the forecasting connotation of the unbiasedness property of...

This paper tests the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates using new data for Germany. The German term structure appears to forecast future short-term interest rates surprisingly well, compared with previous studies with US data, while it has lower predictive power...

In this paper, we show how to construct dynamic forward rate models in terms of exogenously specified eigenfunctions (or factor loadings). We also show how to link forward rate models with different number of driving Brownian motions to each other in a way consistent with the implied...

This paper has the purpose of testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure for two corporate bond yields. A new test is developed based on an ARIMA data generation process of the short rate, and on the derivation of a relation between the change in the long rate and revisions of...

This article proposes the orthonormalised Laguerre polynomial (OLP) model of the yield curve, a generic linear model that is both cross-sectionally consistent (that is, it reliably fits the yield curve at a given point in time), and inter-temporally consistent (that is, the cross-sectional...

This paper consolidates and interprets the literature on the term structure, as it stands today. Definitions of rates of return, forward rates and holding returns for all time intervals are treated here in a uniform manner and their interrelations, exact or approximate, delineated. The concept...

To date the cointegrating properties and the regime-switching behavior of the term structure are two separate strands of the literature. This paper integrates these lines of research and introduces regime shifts into a cointegrated VAR model. We argue that the short run dynamics of the...

The paper tests the hypothesis of a maturity-independent foreign exchange risk premium or equivalently of a constant elasticity of substitution of international assets across the maturity spectrum. The empirical findings indicate that elasticity of substitution is indeed a function of maturity....