The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the...

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, π(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by...

The paper examines Granger-causality between the producers' and the consumers' price using Australian data within the frequency domain framework. For long run relation, the Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach to cointegration was utilized. The test is also supplemented by...

This paper aims to investigate whether the effect of inflation expectations, exchange rate, money supply, industrial production and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model with time varying transition...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <A href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2411/full">'Journal of Applied Econometrics'</A>, 2014, 29(7), 1164-1182.<P> Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that...</p></a>

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity are analyzed within a class of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. First, the misspecification effects of mechanical removal of low frequency movements of these series on posterior inference of a basic PC model are analyzed...

The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...

We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile. Forecast errors for the period 2000-2008 show an excess of autocorrelation and a statistically significant bias at the end of the sample. We take advantage of the autocorrelation...

Output gap is generally used in assessing both the inflationary pressures and the cyclical position of a nation’s economy. However, this variable is not observable and must be estimated. In this paper, we accomplish two tasks. First, we estimate the output gap for the United Arab Emirates...

This paper (1) examines the properties of survey based households’ inflation expectations and investigates their forecasting performance. With application of the individual data from the State of the Households’ Survey (50 quarters between 1997Q4 and 2010Q1) it was shown that inflation...