In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also...

We develop a tractable way to solve for equilibrium quantities and asset prices in a class of real business cycle models featuring Epstein-Zin preferences and affine dynamics for productivity growth and volatility. The method relies on log-linearization and exploits the log-normality of all the...

This paper develops a model that relates businesses’ entry into the underground economy to tax rates and the need to access the banking system. The model uses a dynamic approach in which both firms and banks optimize and in which the benefits to a firm of accessing the banking system are...

This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of FDI as well as domestic capital formation....

In this paper I study the effect of imperfect central bank commitment on inflationary outcomes. I present a model in which the monetary authority is a committee that consists of members who serve overlapping, finite terms. Older and younger generations of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members...

This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of FDI as well as domestic capital formation....

Reconciling the high frequency of price changes at the micro level and their apparent rigidity at the aggregate level has been the subject of considerable debate in macroeconomics recently. In this paper I show that incorporating production chains in a standard New- Keynesian model replicates...

We examine the implications of introducing anticipated productivity shocks for the ability of a real-business-cycle model to explain asset prices. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model in which agents receive news about future productivity shocks. We show that incorporating...