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This study introduces a non linear model for commodity futures prices which accounts for pressures due to hedging and … relationship holds between futures and spot pricing. Over the 1990-2010 time period, a dynamic interaction between spot and futures … relationship for the cash returns and a non linear parameterization of the corresponding futures returns are combined with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008805878
This study introduces a non linear model for commodity futures prices which accounts for the pressures due to hedging …, characterized by a stronger impact of speculation on futures return dynamics. … equilibrium relationship holds between futures and spot pricing. Over the 1990-2010 time period, a dynamic interaction between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678537
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790479
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245886
A significant increase in the level and volatility of many commodity prices over the past decade has led to a debate … level and volatility of commodity prices. The available evidence suggests that while financial investors can affect the … short-run price dynamics for some commodities, the level and volatility of commodity prices appear to be primarily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009146682
capital flows driven by “herding,” “flocking,” and “contagion.” Policies to deal with volatility by weakening, or even … disabling speculation, have been based largely on anecdote, convenience (speculators have long served as scapegoats for various …, to volatility. The paper utilizes a large, detailed database on individual trader positions in crude-oil and heating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005399457
The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048451
, the rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures, predicting volatility using Markov switching multifractal model: evidence … correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns, pricing exotic options using the Wang transform …, forecasting volatility via stock return, range, trading volume and spillover effects: the case of Brazil, estimating and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731768
, the rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures, predicting volatility using Markov switching multifractal model: evidence … correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns, pricing exotic options using the Wang transform …, forecasting volatility via stock return, range, trading volume and spillover effects: the case of Brazil, estimating and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778693
transform, the rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures, predicting volatility using Markov switching multifractal model … cor-relations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns, pricing exotic options using the Wang … approach, forecasting volatility via stock return, range, trading volume and spillover effects: the case of Brazil, estimating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010907433