In this note it is argued that the estimation error in Value-at-Risk predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. We propose a simple correction and find in an empirical illustration that it is economically relevant.

Two oil price shocks changed the pattern of cheap oil. The first was the Arab embargo on oil exports in 1973. Oil prices rose five fold. In 1978, the second was the fall of Shah Iran. Prices soared to $80-$100 a barrel in today‘s prices. In 1960, OPEC was established and since then it has been...

This paper sheds additional light on the relationship between firm level innovative capacity and export intensity. By drawing from the recent literature on exporters' heterogeneity, we apply quantile regression techniques to a sample of Italian firms in order to verify whether the effect of...

Firms make investments in technology to increase productivity. But in emerging markets, where a culture of informality is widespread, information technology (IT) investments leading to greater transparency can impose a cost through higher taxes and need for regulatory compliance. This tendency...

Based on a unique database consisting of hundreds of thousands of non-alcoholic beverage price records collected in about 800 supermarkets in France, we evaluate the impact on prices of the soda tax, an excise on drinks with added sugar or sweetener, introduced in January 2012 in France. We...

L’economia italiana è caratterizzata da un’ampia prevalenza di PMI. Negli ultimi dieci anni, crescenti segnali di crisi, da parte dei sistemi tradizionali con cui l’economia industriale italiana si è organizzata, per rafforzare le sue PMI (e in particolare i distretti industriali e più...

La mesure des disparités régionales dans l’Union européenne a été largement abordée dans la littérature, notamment grâce à l’utilisation de modèles de convergence la plupart du temps basés sur des spécifications néo-classiques. Plus récemment, certains travaux ont mis en...

Copulas are functions that describe the dependence between two or more random variables. This article provides a brief review of copula theory and two areas of economics in which copulas have played important roles: multivariate modeling and partial identification of parameters that depend on...

Due to their indeterminacies, static and dynamic factor models require identifying assumptions to guarantee uniqueness of the parameter estimates. The indeterminacy of the parameter estimates with respect to orthogonal transformations is known as the rotation problem. The typical strategy in...

Due to their well-known indeterminacies, factor models require identifying assumptions to guarantee unique parameter estimates. For Bayesian estimation, these identifying assumptions are usually implemented by imposing constraints on certain model parameters. This strategy, however, may result...