In this paper we fit a vector error correction model (VECM) in output and prices to data from 10 countries of the CFA Franc Zone. This model allows for various cross-country interactions in both the short run and the long run. The VECM parameters are used to estimate persistence profiles of...

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals' economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...

The forecasting performance of a Global VAR model of actual and expected outputs in the G7 economies is compared with that of alternative models to judge the usefulness of modelling cross-country interdependencies and employing survey data. Both effects are found to be important in...

Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best...

An output gap measure is suggested based on a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The gap is estimated using an integrated approach to identifying permanent and...

This paper provides a characterisation of U.S. monetary policy within a generalized Tay¬lor rule framework that accommodates uncertainties about the duration of policy regimes and the speciÞcation of the rule, in addition to the standard parameter and stochastic un¬certainties inherent in...

This paper describes a newly constructed macroeconomic database for Australia including measures of GDP, its components, prices, and key monetary and labour market statistics over the last fifty years as published and revised in real time. Data vintages are collated from various sources and...