This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

This paper analyzes broad money demand (M2) in Guyana from January 1990 to September 1999; a period marked by deep transformations aimed at shifting Guyana from a centralized to a market economy. The paper develops a stable error-correction model based on a long-run cointegrating vector of money...

The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is...

The transmission of policy decisions to financial markets is an integral part of the monetary transmission mechanism. However, one of the major problems in estimating the effect of monetary policy on asset prices is the simultaneous response of policy actions and the asset prices to each other....

The transmission of policy decisions to financial markets is an integral part of the monetary transmission mechanism. However, one of the major problems in estimating the effect of monetary policy on asset prices is the simultaneous response of policy actions and the asset prices to each other....

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency less attractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model and estimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from...

The link between inflation and inflation uncertainty is evaluated using Peruvian data, in a context of changing monetary policies because of regime shifts. A Markov regime-switching heteroskedasticity model that includes unobserved components is used. The model shows how periods of high (low)...

In this paper, we investigate the spillover effect from US monetary policy to selected ASEAN stock markets by employing Markov-switching models. Based on univariate Markov-switching models, we confirm the existence of two distinct regimes for both US monetary policy and the stock markets. By...

We develop a theoretical framework to account for the observed instability of the link between inflation and …fiscal imbalances across time and countries. Current policy makers behavior influences agents' beliefs about the way debt will be stabilized. The standard policy mix consists of a...

This paper evaluates the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a context of monetary policy regime shifts for the Peruvian economy. We use a model of unobserved components subject to regime shifts to evaluate this link. We verify that periods of high(low) inflation me an were...