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Forecasting crude oil market volatility in the context of economic slowdown in emerging markets
MORARD, Bernard; BĂLU, Florentina Olivia - In: Theoretical and Applied Economics XVIII(2014) (2014) 5(594), pp. 19-36
Crude Oil is a commodity with huge strategic importance to all countries in the world. But in the recent years, the oil …, and, implicitly, the prices volatility in financial and commodity markets has also increased. In this paper we empirically … forecast the volatility of this market. Our research questions are how crude oil price volatility has changed in the recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011004936
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The Future of Oil; Geology Versus Technology
Chauvet, Marcelle; Selody, Jack G.; Laxton, Douglas; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The … the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has … model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242439
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Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels; Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices
Pant, Malika; Mühleisen, Martin; Thomas, Alun H. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646422
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Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information
Wu, Tao; Cavallo, Michele - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650637
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A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine; How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?
Sedik, Tahsin Saadi; Cevik, Serhan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839357
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On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations
Unalmis, Deren; Unalmis, Ibrahim; Unsal, D. Filiz - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008561072
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World Crude Oil Markets; Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock
Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
interest rates led to high oil price volatility in 2005. Data shows that world economic growth and price stability require …This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769161
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Nigeria; Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2005
This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Nigeria highlights the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS). NEEDS gives special support to agriculture, industry, small and medium-scale enterprises, and oil and gas. Under the plan, the government will seek long-term capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005591671
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Importer and Producer Petroleum Taxation; A Geo-Political Model
Strand, Jon - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
We derive non-cooperative Nash equilibrium (NE) importer and exporter petroleum excise taxes given full within-group tax coordination, but no coordination between groups, assuming that importers do not produce and exporters do not consume petroleum, and petroleum consumption causes a global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604867
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Oil Shocks and External Balances
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2007
This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264112