Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...

This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with...

The new method of system dynamics, Method of System Potential (MSP), is applied for examination of long-term and short-term dynamics of Economic System. According to MSP two ways of long-term development of a system exist: (1) cyclical and (2) noncyclical dynamics of efficiency index of a system...

The new method of system dynamics, Method of System Potential (MSP), is applied for examination of long-term and short-term dynamics of the Economic System. According to MSP two ways of long-term development of a system exist: (1) cyclical and (2) noncyclical dynamics of efficiency index of a...

There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of...

A perennial question in international finance is to what extent stock returns are influenced by country-location, as opposed to industry-affiliation, factors. This paper develops a novel methodology to measure these effects, in which portfolios mimicking "pure" country and industry factors are...

Financial frictions have been documented as an important determinant of firm dynamics. In this paper I model bankruptcy procedures, liquidation in particular, as an institutional feature that affects both sides of financial transactions. I construct a model of firm dynamics that generate...