This paper introduces a new probabilistic approach to sovereign debt projections and presents new estimates of debt ratios through 2020 for Italy and Spain. The new approach takes account of likely correlations across 243 alternative scenarios with three states (good, baseline, bad) for five key...

Public debts have surged in recent years, in advanced economies, to the levels that have not been recorded since the end of the World War II. The average public debt/GDP ratio for all advances economies has surpassed the pre-World War II peaks reached during the World War I and subsequently...

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a renewed increase in government deficits and debts in many EU countries, causing a full-fledged fiscal crisis in Greece and severe fiscal pressures in other euro-area countries. This has prompted a series of proposals for improving the fiscal framework...

The paper aims to analyze the causes that have led to rising the public debt of Romania between 2008-2013. Although it is below the level set out in the Maastricht Treaty, in Romania, the public debt has grown at a fast pace. Also consider the public debt according instruments, currency and type...

Ireland’s banking crisis, one of the most severe in the OECD area, and the associated economic recession have taken a heavy toll on public finances. Large public deficits have accumulated since 2008 and net public debt, which had been eliminated, has soared once again. The rapid deterioration...

This paper sets out to analyse the impact of global ageing on the financeability of states. It covers issues regarding the sustainability of public debt and theories addressing the repayability of debt. It presents the possibilities of a fiscal Ponzi game, which would allow the financing of the...

This paper proposes the design of an Early Warning System (EWS) to evaluate the possibility of public debt crisis in Mexico. For the EWS construction we use the signal detection theory based on non-parametric statistics and exploratory data analysis. We generated a mainly classified index, which...