The 2008-09 global economic crises have shown that no country is immune to external challenges. When policy controls are missing or not used efficiently, crises can reverse progress even in advanced economies. This unexpected outcome has increased concerns about the ability of governments in...

The last century economists have dared to predict, if not the end of the business cycle, at least the progress towards economic stability. This was because of the stabilization policies and structural changes of the postwar economy that seemed to support the reduction of economic fluctuations,...

One definition of the natural rate is the (time-varying) steady state equilibrium rate. Then the gap is the difference between the actual and natural rates, or the forecastable movement. Although modern business cycle theories study deviation cycles (cycles in the gap), the NBER business cycle...

We pursue a two-fold objective in this paper. First, we try to describe comprehensively the behaviour of sectoral growth cycles in Turkish manufacturing by using several statistical measures and to analyse the co-movement between them via correlation and peak-through analysis. One of the...

Автор фиксирует в последние 60 лет теснейшую взаимозависимость смены экономических циклов Жугляра и политических процессов в США. Нарушение синхронности смены...

Автор обращает внимание на теснейшую зависимость в последние 60 лет смены экономических циклов Жугляра и политических процессов в США. В статье показано, что...

In this paper I address the following questions. - Has the business cycle become longer and shallower? And why? - How stabilizing is monetary policy. In answering these questions I summarize recent research undertaken by Adrian Pagan and myself that formalizes the procedures developed by Burns...

Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response...

We consider the seasonal distribution of turning points in the post-war growth cycles of sixteen economies. Using nonparametric tests for distributions on the circle, we cannot reject the hypothesis of a uniform distribution for the turning points for most of the countries. In the case of...

We pursue a two-fold objective in this paper. First, we try to describe comprehensively the behaviour of sectoral growth cycles in Turkish manufacturing by using several statistical measures and to analyse the co-movement between them via correlation and peak-through analysis. One of the...