This paper develops a human-capital-based endogenous growth scenario in which an economy initially produces the agricultural good, characterized by diminishing returns to scale, then produces `traditional manufacturing' under constant-returns and finally produces `modern manufacturing' under...

Tracking growth in the Indian economy would be best performed using a measure like GDP. Unfortunately official estimates of this indicator are released with quarterly frequency and with considerable delay. This paper compares different approaches to the short term forecasting (nowcasting) of...

This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affct business cycles in emerging economies. Using a small open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle...

This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle...

How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform...

In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of inflation. In terms of monthly data, each observation of a one-year change in inflation is the sum of twelve one-month changes. This suggests that better information about inflationary pressures can be...

In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of inflation. In terms of monthly data, each observation of a one-year change in inflation is the sum of twelve one month changes. This suggests that better information about inflationary pressures can be...

Monetary policy in India has moved towards an increasingly flexible exchange rate regime without any explicit framework for an alternative nominal anchor. The failure of monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations of agents, coupled with negative supply shocks has kept inflation above...

How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform...