Volatility models have been extensively used in risk modeling especially GARCH models under the normal distribution. Although they generate highly significant coefficient estimates, these models are known to have poor forecasting power. It is therefore interesting to develop a different approach...

Az Egyesült Államok eszközvásárlási programjának 2014 elején indult szigorítása jelentős mértékű globális portfólióátcsoportosításhoz és az eszközárak zuhanásához vezetett a feltörekvő piacokon. A szerző lineáris regressziós és klaszterelemzési módszerekkel...

The last 20 years have been marked by a sharp rise in international demand for U.S. reserve assets, or safe stores-of-value. What are the welfare consequences to U.S. households of these trends, or of a reversal? In a lifecycle model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risks, the young and oldest...

The downside risk CAPM (DR-CAPM) can price the cross section of currency returns. The market-beta differential between high and low interest rate currencies is higher conditional on bad market returns, when the market price of risk is also high, than it is conditional on good market returns....

Deviations from normality in financial return series have led to the development of alternative portfolio selection models. One such model is the downside risk model, whereby the investor maximizes his return given a downside risk constraint. In this paper we empirically observe the...

This paper focuses on dynamic interactions of equity prices among theoretically related assets. We explore the existence of intraday non-linearities in the FTSE 100 cash and futures indices. We test whether the introduction of the electronic trading systems in the London Stock Exchange in 1997...

This paper estimates the probability of a “lost decade,” where equity investments lose value over a 10-year period. The findings are a reminder that equity investments are risky even over longer time periods, and investors should take this into consideration when making portfolio choices. It...