Energy conversion in the production of goods and services, and the resulting emissions associated with entropy production, have not yet been taken into account by the mainstream theory of economic growth. Novel econometric analyses, however, have revealed energy as a production factor whose...

The stringency of policies needed to meet a climate target is influenced by uncertain oil prices because price changes cause emission changes, making the robustness of climate policy instruments important. As a result of its dependence on oil, emissions from the transport sector are particularly...

One main purpose of economic analysis is prediction of economic variables. For this reason, various methods have been developed in this context. One important challenge in prediction of time series is precise prediction without any computational complexities. It is usually assumed that...

Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a...

We build a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with one-sided substitutability between fossil carbon and biocarbon. One shock only, the discovery of the technology to use fossil fuels, leads to a transition from an initial pre-industrial phase to three following phases: a pure fossil...

For some years now, the price of oil has been out of control. None of the industry players are able to set the price level or influence its movement. Some consumers still believe that the oil price is determined within the context of the power balance between producers and consumers, but since...

Industrial production and liquidity in China and liquidity in other major countries are introduced into the Kilian (2009) model identifying the supply and demand side factors driving real oil price changes. It is recognized that China’s real liquidity may proxy for real income increase in...

Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition...

For a country that imports crude oil, the forex burden is always fluctuant due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and exchange rates over time. The gap discovered between international crude oil prices and the crude oil price based on exchange rates may indicate the fluctuation...