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Monte-Carlo Simulation und Due Diligence: Ein methodischer Ansatz zur computergestützten Aggregierung von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen aus Expertenbefragungen
Klein, Martin - Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
The combination of experts' probability distributions involved in a due diligence is valuable for encapsulating the accumulated information for decision makers and providing the current state of expert opinion regarding important uncertainties. Therefore, this paper shows how to create and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498425
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Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey
Ülengin, Füsun; Özaydın, Özay; Ülengin, Burç; … - In: Transport Policy 29 (2013) C, pp. 227-235
demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to … in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models …, the growth rate of Turkey's GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011056853
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Swiss Climate Change and Nuclear Policy: A Comparative Analysis Using an Energy System Approach and a Sectoral Electricity Model
Weidmann, Nicolas; Kannan, Ramachandran; Turton, Hal - In: Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES) 148 (2012) II, pp. 275-316
Decisions on climate change and nuclear policies are likely to have major influences on the future evolution of the Swiss energy system. To understand the implications of selected future policy decisions, we analyse the development of the Swiss energy system with a bottom-up technology-rich...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986698
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Intertemporal analysis of organizational productivity in residential aged care networks: scenario analyses for setting policy targets
Avkiran, Necmi; McCrystal, Alan - In: Health Care Management Science 17 (2014) 2, pp. 113-125
With an increasing ageing population, there is a growing concern about how the elderly would be looked after. The primary purpose of this paper is to develop scenario analysis using simulated data where various criteria are incorporated into modeling policy targets, and apply an intertemporal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010988332
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Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis
Hu, Beibei; Zhou, Jun; Xu, Shiyuan; Chen, Zhenlou; Wang, Jun - In: Natural Hazards 66 (2013) 2, pp. 873-886
Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010995863
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Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China
Liu, Yaolong; Chen, Zhenlou; Wang, Jun; Hu, Beibei; Ye, … - In: Natural Hazards 60 (2012) 3, pp. 1287-1298
Based on the analysis and calculation of the hazard intensity of typhoon rainstorms and floods as well as the vulnerability of flood receptors and the possibility of great losses, risk scenarios are proposed and presented in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, using the Pearson-III model and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996881
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Assessment of Rainwater Availability by Building Type and Water Use Through GIS-based Scenario Analysis
Kim, Jinyoung; Furumai, Hiroaki - In: Water Resources Management 26 (2012) 6, pp. 1499-1511
Scenario analysis of rainwater harvesting and utilization (RWHU) was performed considering various non-potable water uses in different building types over a year. Six building types were identified in the study area using GIS data: residential houses, offices, commercial buildings, restaurants,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010997305
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Applying Optimisation and Uncertainty Analysis to Help Develop an Integrated Water Resources Plan for South East England
Lany, P.; Choudhury, F.; Hepworth, N.; Akande, K. - In: Water Resources Management 27 (2013) 4, pp. 1111-1122
The need to promote opportunities for integration between commercially independent water supply providers is becoming important as pressure on water resources increases in many parts of the world. Water stress in south eastern England is projected to increase over the next 25 years, influenced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010997309
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A Stochastic Non-linear Programming Model for a Multi-period Water Resource Allocation with Multiple Objectives
Higgins, Andrew; Archer, Ainsley; Hajkowicz, Stefan - In: Water Resources Management 22 (2008) 10, pp. 1445-1460
A rapid increase in demand and severe droughts in recent years has increased the pressure on water supplies throughout most parts of Australia. This has resulted in the need for tools to allocate limited water across users in different regions, and explore scenarios so as to achieve economic,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010998158
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SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS WITH AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION AND DATA MINING FRAMEWORK
SHINDE, AMIT; HAGHNEVIS, MOEED; JANSSEN, MARCO A.; … - In: International Journal of Innovation and Technology … 10 (2013) 05, pp. 1340019-1
A framework is presented to simulate and analyze the effect of multiple business scenarios on the adoption behavior of a group of technology products. Diffusion is viewed as an emergent phenomenon that results from the interaction of consumers. An agent-based model is used in which potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010883019