Predicted changes in interest rates are imperfectly correlated with actual changes in interest rates. One statistical consequence may be that large predicted changes are more likely to be overestimates than underestimates of the magnitude of the change. If so, the accuracy of predicted interest...

Analysts' earnings forecasts are not perfectly correlated with actual earnings. One statistical consequence is that the most optimistic and most pessimistic forecasts are usually too optimistic and too pessimistic. The forecasts' accuracy can be improved by shrinking them towards the mean....

This paper explains why so many real life phenomena generate regression towards the mean or mean reversion results. We start our analysis by revisiting Galton's original paper on the height of children and the height of parents. We then show that the regression towards the mean result also holds...

Data for 116 California communities reveal considerable variation in changes in the value of owner-occupied homes during 2005-2010, variation that is related to the price/rent ratios that existed in 2005, number of rental properties in the community, increase in home values between 2000 and...

Some stocks have meaningful ticker symbols; for example, LUV (Southwest Airlines), MOO (United Stockyards), and GEEK (Internet America). Such tickers might be a useful signal of the company's creativity, a memorable marker that appeals to investors, or a warning that the company feels it must...

Discussions of whether a housing bubble exists generally rely on indirect barometers such as rapidly increasing prices, unrealistic expectations of future price increases, and rising ratios of housing price indexes to indexes of household income. Such measures cannot, however, answer the key...