. Estimation uses 13,193 observations on quarterly US inflation forecasts since 1981. The main finding is a significantly larger … weight on expected future inflation than on past inflation, a finding which also is estimated with much more precision than … in the standard approach. Inflation dynamics also are stable over time, with no decline in inflation inertia from the …

Background: The inflation dynamics of Croatia is studied in the paper, with the review of applicable marginal cost … the price of imports and other open economy factors in driving inflation in Croatia from the first quarter of 2000 to the … negligible. Conclusions: The results provide an empirical contribution both to the literature on inflation in Croatia and the …

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a …. Forward and backward looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated …. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation …

/full">'Journal of Applied Econometrics'</A>, 2014, 29(7), 1164-1182.<P> Changing time series properties of US inflation and … inflation are incorporated and their relative importance evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to … credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward …

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great … theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that backward-looking inflation … multiple structural changes in the NKPC for the US between 1960 and 2005, employing both inflation expectations survey data and …

Does theory aid inflation forecasting? To date, the evidence suggests that there is no systematic advantage of theory …-based models of inflation dynamics over their astructural counterparts. This study reconsiders the issue by developing a “semi …-structural” forecasting procedure comprised of two key ingredients. First, a prediction for the cyclical component of inflation is obtained …

relationship between past and expected values of inflation, resulting in the so-called Hybrid Neo-Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC …). In this article I investigate to which extent the HNKPC help to explain inflation dynamics as well as its out … accounts from 1.58 to 0.40 times the lagged inflation coefficient. Also, I find predictive gains close to 45% (respect to a …

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity are analyzed within a class of extended Phillips … models that describe changing patterns in low and high frequencies and backward as well as forward inflation expectation … frequencies are carefully modeled. Modeling inflation expectations using survey data and adding level shifts and stochastic …