This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS … spread. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three measures of inflation expectations: the Livingston Survey …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many previously unexploited monthly and real …

learn, form their expectations, and make decisions regarding savings and production for future periods. There are no … are unexpected by agents, or if future price expectations are not adjusted exactly proportionally to the announced …, as that would require it knowing precisely the actual law of motion of the economy, current market’s expectations, and …

compare the model predictions to survey evidence on the return expectations of real-world housing investors. We allow for time … growth, consistent with the U.S. data for the period 1960 to 2013. Under fully-rational expectations, the model significantly …

expectations and market outcomes and suggests a critical role for shifting long-run growth expectations in business cycle …

firm in a dynamic environment according to decisions about production depending on expectations. The model incorporates the … formation of expectations in a market environment by propagation of sentiment between heterogeneous agents with limited … rationality. When incorporating expectations about the real interest rate, seen as a so-called prime mover according to the OECD …

The assumption of rational expectations is potentially a serious source of misspecification in DSGE models. Many recent … theories of expectations formation have relaxed rational expectations and improved the predictive properties of benchmark … macroeconomic models. Problematically, the space of possible theoretical deviations from rational expectations is very large …

interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …