Anfang August hat das ifo Institut seine letzte Konjunkturprognose veröffentlicht. In der zweiten Oktoberhälfte legen die sechs an der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose beteiligten Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute die nächste Schätzung vor. Da häufig die Frage gestellt wird, wie derartige Prognosen...

A small-scale, but highly-stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is estimated by the maximum likelihood method using Chinese quarterly data. Model specifications and parameter equalities between various competing model variants are addressed by formal statistical hypothesis tests,...

When comparing methods for classification, often the rating relies on their prediction accuracy alone. One reason for this is that this is the aspect that can be most easily measured. Yet, often one wants to learn more about the problem than only how to predict. The interpretation of the...

A discussion of the importance for economics of Kydland and Prescott's (1982) classic "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations". A report submitted to The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in support of the The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for Finn E....

Results from the WIFO business survey have shown a tentative upward trend since early this year, interrupted by occasional reversals. In the fourth quarter, confidence has improved in the manufacturing sector. All indicators currently point to a slow recovery, but not to a proper upturn.

The usual estimation methods provide only a blurred picture of the cyclical development for the current values of a time series, the section that is of most interest for short-term economic analysis. As an alternative, an approach to identify first signs of a development toward a cyclical...

In this paper, we propose a simple methodology for investigating how shocks to trend and cycle are correlated in unidentified unobserved components models, in which the correlation is not identified. The proposed methodology is applied to U.S. and U.K. real GDP data. We find that the correlation...

DIWAX is an agent-based software package designed to support macroeconomic forecasting based on national accounting schemes. Its main building blocks comprise a relational metadatabank for organizing data along standard economic and statistical classifications, a resource-based project...