Lucas, André; Schwaab, Bernd; Zhang, Xin - In: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 32 (2014) 2, pp. 271-284
We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-<italic>t</italic> distribution that captures all salient features of the data, including skewed and heavy-tailed changes in the price of CDS...