This paper examines evidence of predictability in Australian equities using both statistical and economic metrics of significance. A probit-based predictive model is used to forecast the probability that the 1 month ahead excess market return will be positive. Funds under management are then...

Recent theoretical work argues that information risk is a non-diversifiable risk factor that is priced in the capital market. Using accruals quality to proxy for information risk, <link rid="b15">Francis et al. (2005)</link> provide empirical support for this argument using a sample of US firms. This paper re-examines...

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model...

There is a large body of literature examining the association between stock characteristics and the cross-section of stock returns in international markets. Recently, Cooper et al. (2008) reported a strong association between total asset growth and stock returns in the US. In this paper, we show...

The predictability of stock returns is often assessed using classical statistical significance from predictive regressions. Statistical inference, however, can belie the economic importance with which investors regard various predictors. This paper examines the influence that predictors have on...

There is a growing need to model the dynamics of electricity spot prices. While many studies have adopted the jump-diffusion model used successfully in traditional financial markets, the distinctive features of energy prices present non-trivial challenges. In particular, electricity price series...