Am 13. Dezember 2007 stellte das ifo Institut im Rahmen seines vorweihnachtlichen Pressegesprächs seine Prognose für die Jahre 2008 und 2009 vor. Die Weltwirtschaft hat in diesem Jahr mit 5,2% erneut sehr kräftig expandiert. Allerdings sind die Risiken für die Konjunktur im Gefolge der...

Nachruf zum Tod von Karl Heinrich Oppenländer

Flüchtendes Schwarzgeld sowie aus Osteuropa und der Türkei zurückdrängende DM-Bestände können den Kursverfall des Euro maßgeblich erklären: Das von Hans-Werner Sinn und Frank Westermann formulierte Portfolio-Balance Modell unterscheidet nämlich im Gegensatz zu anderen Modellen dieser...

This paper presents the first comprehensive Target database of the Eurozone and interprets it from an economic perspective. We show that the Target accounts measure the intra-Eurozone balances of payments and indirectly also international credit given through the Eurosystem in terms of...

Chapter 1 of the report discusses the immediate macroeconomic outlook for the global economy, with a particular focus on the European situation. Chapter 2 focuses on Switzerland, and specifically on the lessons that Europe can learn from the Swiss experience in maintaining cohesion while...

This chapter identifies the factors that led to imbalances in the euro area, which resulted in the current balance-of-payments crisis. The chapter also discusses how rebalancing might be achieved, and how fiscal policy could accelerate this process.

As always, the report starts with an assessment of the current economic situation, providing a set of forecasts prepared by the Ifo Institute and complemented by the report’s authors, the European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo (EEAG). Chapter 2 focuses on the intra-euro area imbalances,...

This chapter investigates two of the most widely debated aspects of US fiscal and financial integration: (1) the responsibility of the federation for state-level debts and for the creditworthiness of states; and (2) the working of a federal central bank. Today’s fiscal federalism in the United...

This chapter examines the interactions between the different institutional characteristics of labour markets in Europe, and the impact of the current recession on their unemployment structure and dynamics. Section 3.2 sketches the wide variety of unemployment experiences across countries in...