Das vorliegende Papier schätzt auf Basis eines Probit-Modells die Wendepunkte des ifo-Geschäftserwartungsindex. Die übliche Vorgehensweise in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur wird um zwei Aspekte erweitert: Erstens werden zusätzlich zu einzelnen Variablen sogenannte Faktoren berücksichtigt,...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

At the beginning of 1999 the euro was launched as a common currency in 11 European countries. This paper addresses empirically the medium to long-term forces driving the real euro-dollar exchange rate. Constructing a synthetic euro-dollar exchange rate over a period from 1975 to 1998 and...

The subject of the study is the impact of the exchange rate on Gennany's balance of trade. The analysis hence focuses on the significance of invoicing practices as weIl as the factors which determine export and import prices and the volumes.The results reveal a largely classical reaction on the...

In this article, we analyse the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany that circulate abroad. Inferences are drawn from a coin model. Our approach suggests that foreign demand has increased since 2002. At the end of 2009 nearly 50%, the equivalent of €170 billion, is held outside the euro...

The paper derives the monetary policy reaction function implied by using money as an indicator variable. It consists of an interest rate response to deviations of the inflation rate from target, to the change in the output gap, to money demand shocks and to the lagged interest rate. We show that...

This paper gives an overview of the role of the IMF in the European debt crisis. It describes the rescue packages and the involvement of the IMF. The main part discusses the pros and cons of the participation of the IMF in elaborating and monitoring the economic adjustment programs for the...

Am 22. Januar 2015 hat der EZB-Rat ein erweitertes Programm zum Ankauf von Vermögenswerten, das sogenannte »Quantitative Easing«, beschlossen. Thomas Jost, Hochschule Aschaffenburg, und Franz Seitz, Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Weiden, kommentieren diese Entscheidung und ihre Konsequenzen.