This paper characterizes the term structure of Treasury bond yields for Brazil, and estimates a Nelson-Siegel Model to reproduce its stylized facts for the period 2004-2010. For this purpose, this paper uses a software developed by Fund staff. In addition, the paper estimates two versions of the...

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in...

The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to...

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

The Pareto-positive stable (PPS) distribution is introduced as a new model for describing city size data in a country. The PPS distribution provides a flexible model for fitting the entire range of a set of city size data, where zero and unimodality are possible, and the classical Pareto and...

We show that within classical statistical mechanics, without taking the thermodynamic limit, the most general Boltzmann factor for the canonical ensemble is a q-exponential function. The only assumption here is that microcanonical distributions have to be separated from the total system energy,...

We have studied the time lags between commercial line airplane disasters and their occurrence frequency till 2002, as obtained from a freely available website. We show that the time lags seem to be well described by Poisson random events, where the average events rate is itself a function of...

We show that within classical statistical mechanics it is possible to naturally derive power-law distributions which are of Tsallis type. The only assumption is that microcanonical distributions have to be separable from of the total system energy, which is reasonable for any sensible...