This paper characterizes the term structure of Treasury bond yields for Brazil, and estimates a Nelson-Siegel Model to reproduce its stylized facts for the period 2004-2010. For this purpose, this paper uses a software developed by Fund staff. In addition, the paper estimates two versions of the...

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

We show that within classical statistical mechanics it is possible to naturally derive power-law distributions which are of Tsallis type. The only assumption is that microcanonical distributions have to be separable from of the total system energy, which is reasonable for any sensible...

The Pareto-positive stable (PPS) distribution is introduced as a new model for describing city size data in a country. The PPS distribution provides a flexible model for fitting the entire range of a set of city size data, where zero and unimodality are possible, and the classical Pareto and...

We show that within classical statistical mechanics, without taking the thermodynamic limit, the most general Boltzmann factor for the canonical ensemble is a q-exponential function. The only assumption here is that microcanonical distributions have to be separated from the total system energy,...

We have studied the time lags between commercial line airplane disasters and their occurrence frequency till 2002, as obtained from a freely available website. We show that the time lags seem to be well described by Poisson random events, where the average events rate is itself a function of...

We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential, where the ‘temperature’ fluctuates slowly. The model...

Using unobservable conditional variance as measure, latentvariable approaches, such as GARCH and stochasticvolatility models, have traditionally been dominating the empirical finance literature. In recent years, with the availability of highfrequency financial market data modeling realized...

This paper aims to provide a dynamic analysis of the insurance linked securities index. We are discussing the behaviour of the index for three years and pointing out the consequences of some major events like Katrina or the last and current financial crisis. Some stylized facts of the index,...