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Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisation
Dwyer, Alexandra; Gardner, George; Williams, Thomas - In: RBA Bulletin (2011) June, pp. 49-58
A significant increase in the level and volatility of many commodity prices over the past decade has led to a debate … level and volatility of commodity prices. The available evidence suggests that while financial investors can affect the … short-run price dynamics for some commodities, the level and volatility of commodity prices appear to be primarily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009146682
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Northern Star; Canada's Path to Economic Prosperity
Klyuev, Vladimir; Mühleisen, Martin; Bayoumi, Tamim - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
Robust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses -- it's a record to be envied. These outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies, as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245903
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Canada; Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2005
This Selected Issues paper for Canada presents comprehensive and broad-based analysis of the role of domestic and external shocks. Canada’s economic history illustrates the important role played by external as well as domestic macroeconomic disturbances. Canada’s economy slowed in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825505
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Aid, Exports, and Growth; A Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis
Kang, Joong Shik; Prati, Alessandro; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
We use a heterogeneous panel VAR model identified through factor analysis to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a “global” aid shock. We find that a global aid shock can affect exports, imports, and growth either positively or negatively. As a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242264
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The Comovement in Commodity Prices; Sources and Implications
Alquist, Ron; Coibion, Olivier - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242285
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142006
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Energiemangel - Rohstoffknappheit: Welche mittelfristigen Perspektiven hat die deutsche Wirtschaft?
Wuermeling, Joachim; Bernotat, Wulf H.; Grillo, Ulrich; … - In: Ifo Schnelldienst 60 (2007) 05, pp. 03-19
Steigende Energiekosten und Rohstoffpreise, Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der Verlässlichkeit der Energielieferungen und Verknappung auf den Rohstoffmärkten - Joachim Wuermeling, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie, sieht die Notwendigkeit einer neue Rohstoffstrategie für...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005055768
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Crude Oil Prices; Trends and Forecast
Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825666
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A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices
Cheng, Kevin C. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646431
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Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy
Roitman, Agustin; Daude, Christian - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We show evidence suggesting that uncertainty about the underlying stochastic process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876576