An important observation in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, suggests that demand variability increases as one moves up a supply chain. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two-stage supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. Our...

This paper presents a multistage supply chain model that is based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models. Given an ARIMA model of consumer demand and the lead times at each stage, it is shown that the orders and inventories at each stage are also ARIMA, and...

Many theoretical models adopt a normative approach and assume that decision makers are perfect optimizers. In contrast, this paper takes a descriptive approach and considers bounded rationality, in the sense that decision makers are prone to errors and biases. Our decision model builds on the...

In an upstream supply chain dedicated to the mass production of customized products, many sources create production instability: the level and structure of production in the final assembly line, variability of lead times, quality issues, packaging and loading constraints on transportation,...

Forecasts of demand are crucial to drive supply chains and enterprise resource planning systems. Usually, well-known univariate methods that work automatically such as exponential smoothing are employed to accomplish such forecasts. The traditional Supply Chain relies on a decentralized system...

Using a simulated supply chain experiment based on the well-known "beer game," we examine how changes in order and delivery cycles, availability of shared point-of-sale (POS) information, and the pattern of customer demand affect supply chain efficiency. We find that speeding up cycle time is...

In an upstream supply chain dedicated to the mass production of customized products, many sources create production instability: the level and structure of production in the final assembly line, variability of lead times, quality issues, packaging and loading constraints on transportation,...