months, and out-of-sample forecasts show that the GISI has the lowest forecast error of all the inflation expectations …This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation …

Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused …

Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious … model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the … and PCE inflation also significantly outperform those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, with similar nowcasting …

models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to …

This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country … growing discontent with inflation, however, has compelled policymakers to focus on this issue, bringing it to the forefront of …

The report gives details of the economic analysis for the implementation of Chile's inflation targeting framework. It … corporate bonds to the market. The paper considers a number of microstructure issues, transparency in the Over-the-Counter (OTC …) market, addresses the role of public debt in facilitating development of the financial markets, and discusses a potential …

analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts …. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all …

explore the consequences of this for a variety of forecast combination methods in common use and propose a new method that … projects actual outcomes on the equal-weighted forecast as a means of adjusting for biases and noise in the underlying … forecasts. Through simulations and an empirical application to inflation forecasts we show that the entry and exit of individual …

anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters … in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography … central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries … flows or yield spreads, to assess the impact of IMF programs on economic expectations. Using a multinomial probit model, we … find that IMF loans appear to have a strong effect on agent expectations in the early years, through the inflow of real …