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Measuring potential output for the South African economy: Embedding information about the financial cycle
Kemp, Harri - Department of Economics, Fakulteit Ekonomiese en … - 2014
In a recent paper, Borio et al (2013a) show that information embedded in the financial cycle can serve to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. It is argued that output may be on an unsustainable path despite low and stable inflation if financial imbalances are accumulating....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010834042
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Rethinking potential output: Embedding information about the financial cycle
Borio, Claudio; Disyatat, Frank Piti; Juselius, Mikael - Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - 2013
This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010610726
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Embedding Liquidity Information in Estimating Potential Output
Scalone, Stefano - Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Facoltà di Economia - 2014
the process for estimating potential output. We extend the estimation to more countries (USA, UK, Spain, Italy, France … original proxies are not particularly robust across countries, and that including liquidity information in the estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011160805
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The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries
Haugh, David; Ollivaud, Patrice; Turner, David - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2009
This paper examines the characteristics of downturns and subsequent recoveries following past banking crises in OECD countries as well as evidence of any effects on potential output growth. It is differentiated from previous analyses because it makes use of OECD measures of the output gap and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005046244
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Was kostet die Krise? Mittelfristige Wachstumsperspektiven in Deutschland, 2010 - 2014
Buchen, Teresa; Carstensen, Kai; Henzel, Steffen; … - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
2009 ist eine Diskussion darüber entbrannt, inwieweit die derzeitige Finanzkrise Einfluss auf die mittelfristigen … ist. Dazu wird das Produktionspotenzial im Rahmen einer Wachstumsbilanzierung unter Zuhilfenahme von strukturellen … Zeitreihenmodellen abgeschätzt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass das Niveau des Produktionspotenzials aufgrund der Finanzkrise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008472806
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A parsimonious approach to incorporating economic information in measures of potential output
Borio, Claudio; Disyatat, Piti; Juselius, Mikael - Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - 2014
A popular strategy for estimating output gaps is to anchor them to structural economic relationships. The resulting output gaps, however, are often highly sensitive to numerous auxiliary assumptions inherent in the approach. This complicates their use in policymaking. We illustrate the point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849797
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The Phillips Curve: (In)stability, the role of credit, and implications for potential output measurement
Schleer, Frauke; Kappler, Marcus - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - 2014
potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It is fair to say that the employed estimation techniques failed to … into account in conventional methods for the estimation of potential output and the output gap. Since both, potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010957684
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Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies
Bernhofer, Dominik; Fernández-Amador, Octavio; … - In: Focus on European Economic Integration (2014) 2, pp. 52-75
Traditional approaches to separate the underlying trend of potential output from cyclical developments mostly rely on the concept of nonaccelerating inflation output and are thus unable to detect upswings caused by the financial cycle, which often appear to be unsustainable in the long run. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818126
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Gorunmez Ama Hissedilmez Degil : Turkiye'de Cikti Acigi
Ogunc, Fethi; Sarikaya, Cagri - In: Central Bank Review 11 (2011) 2, pp. 15-28
In this study, an output gap measure is derived for the Turkish economy using an estimated New Keynesian model. Considering the ongoing structural transformation during the last decade, the model is estimated for 2002-2010 period using Bayesian techniques. The results indicate that output, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293993
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Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating The New Keynesian Output Gap Via A Bayesian Approach
Willems, Tim - Tinbergen Institute - 2009
separating trend from cycle via Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, augmented with an unobserved components model for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004987450