We review a recent body of theoretical work that aims to put numbers on the consequences of globalization. A unifying theme of our survey is methodological. We rely on gravity models and demonstrate how they can be used for counterfactual analysis. We highlight how various economic...

This paper takes a welfare-view on eastern enlargement of the EU, focusing on incumbent countries. Enlargement is decomposed into three elements: Single-market integration on commodity markets, budgetary costs from EU-expenditure policies, and singlemarket- induced migration from new to present...

The welfare effect under GTAP model computes a money metric equivalent of the utility change. This is calculated by measuring ‘equivalent variation’ (EV) which summarizes the regional welfare changes resulting from any policy shock and is given in dollar values (US $ million). In GTAP, this...

Russian manufacturing industrial development in late 2014 – early 2015 has been splitted: depending on the output dynamics industries may be divided into two groups. One group (the “losers”) shows a stagnating dynamics in spite of the substantial price growth caused by the exchange rate...

El modelo de gravitacional es una conocida herramienta para predecir los flujos de comercio entre países. A partir de datos anuales de comercio entre 178 países para el período 1948-1999, este trabajo estima que un TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos incrementaría el comercio bilateral en...

A key characteristic of any trade bloc is its “flexibility” – the extent to which it can be modified or augmented by existing members. This paper investigates how prospective trade bloc members value the flexibility of proposed trade agreements in a changing trading environment. We...

In this paper the authors develop an innovative 21 sector computable general equilibrium model of Armenia to assess the impact on Armenia of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU, as well as further regional or multilateral trade policy commitments. They find that a...