The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time-varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...

This paper explains the early U.S. Department of Commerce estimates of national income and product during the 1930s and 1940s, focusing on how both economic theory and the needs of policymakers influenced the methods and concepts used. The paper explores the debate between Simon Kuznets, author...

The aim of this paper is to give an overview of typical features of selected European economies in time of the current crisis, to describe behaviour of macroeconomic variables, including various measures of GDP, but also current balance and unemployment rate as factors influencing the GDP...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

First estimates of trade account statistics attract quite some attention in the media as they contain substantial information on recent economic developments. It is well known, however, that subsequent revisions of in particular this series can sometimes have substantial consequences for ex post...

A well-documented property of the Beveridge-Nelson trend-cycle decomposition is the perfect negative correlation between trend and cycle innovations. We show how this may be consistent with a structural model where trend shocks enter the cycle, or cycle shocks enter the trend and that...

We study the differences in currency misalignment estimates obtained from alternative datasets derived from two International Comparison Program (ICP) surveys. A decomposition exercise reveals that the year 2005 misalignment estimates are substantially affected by the ICP price revision....

We study the differences of currency misalignment estimates obtained from alternative datasets derived from two International Comparison Program (ICP) surveys. A decomposition exercise reveals that the year 2005 misalignment estimates are substantially affected by the ICP price revision....

An economic classification is a partition of the economy which must describe it. When description is bad, why we have to change this classification, it become difficult to built long run time series data, because we cant link data between old and new classification. This paper presents our...

National account (N.A.) is not a neutral technique. It depends on the state of the theoretical mechanism - macroeconomic and statistical one. When we teach N.A., we show these mechanisms through account’s tools (TEI, TEE, and so on.) with the available data. In France, especially in the high...