This paper aims at identifying the main shocks, which cause movements in real GNP. It does so by searching for two shocks in the context of a VAR model, which explain the majority of the k-step ahead prediction error variances in real GNP for horizons between 0 and 5 years. We find that two...

By international standards, unemployment in Sweden remained remarkably low throughout the 1970s and the 1980s. In the early 1990s, however, the unemployment rate skyrocketed and hit double-digit levels. Unemployment remained high for several years but exhibited a marked fall from 1997 and...

This paper examines the effect of labor market opportunities on schooling-employment decisions in 12 urban areas in Argentina over 12 years, emphasizing the recession/crisis years 1998-2002. The effects of macroeconomic swings on schooling decisions are examined with a focus on whether the...

We investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets estimated by DCC-MGARCH models. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are rather isolated from each other. We find that the...

During the 90s emerging markets have been hit by recurrent exchange rate crises. Almost all these countries shared a common characteristic: they adopted in previous years soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. International institutions and academic economists interpreted...

Returns to schooling in urban Argentina increased from 1992 to 2003, a period of economic reforms and macroeconomic volatility. In this paper I provide the most consistent estimates of returns to education so far, while I also investigate earnings profiles over time. This paper contributes to...

Following the approach suggested by Favero and Rovelli (2002), I estimate a three-equations system for different sub-samples for Canada. The results indicate that the preferences of the monetary authority have changed between the different regimes. In particular, the parameter associated to the...

In the next 25 years, the ongoing transformation of payments systems will press Chile and other countries to abandon their national currencies as means of payment and to choose the US dollar as their unit of account. That transformation is already well ad

This paper examines the effect of labor market opportunities on schoolingemployment decisions in 12 urban areas in Argentina over 12 years, emphasizing the recession/crisis years 1998-2002. Over “typical” years deteriorating job rates increase the probability of attending school and decrease...

Do generations growing up during recessions have different socio-economic beliefs than generations growing up in good times? We study the relationship between recessions and beliefs by matching macroeconomic shocks during early adulthood with self-reported answers from the General Social Survey....