Using stochastic forecasting techniques, this paper assesses the consequences for public finances of changes in age and household structures in Denmark over the period 2008–2037. Focusing on components of welfare provisions and tax payments with noticeable differences across age and household...

Long term water demand forecasting is needed for the efficient planning and management of water supply systems. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is adopted in this paper to quantify the uncertainties in long term water demand prediction due to the stochastic nature of predictor variables and...

This paper constructs long-term forecasts of energy prices using a reduced form model of shifting trend developed by Pindyck (1999). A Gibbs sampling algorithm is developed to estimate models with a shifting trend line which are used to construct 10-period-ahead and 15-period ahead forecasts. An...

This study investigated the magnitude of forecast improvements resulting from correction of inefficiencies in USDA cotton forecasts over 1999/00 to 2008/09 marketing years. The aspects of forecast performance included in this study were 1) bias and trends in bias, 2) correlation between forecast...

Forecasts of the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance are, potentially, informative as to the stance of future fiscal policies. This is sustained by the fiscal surveillance procedure for Eurozone members since the reformed Stability and Growth Pact of 2005. However, the quality of...

This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function...

We look at the substantive theory behind political forecasting models, which are generally based on theories of electoral behavior. We argue that the theory relied on for developing forecasting models should be as non-controversial as possible; what we call “core theory”. We take the lessons...

Mit Konjunkturprognosen wird auf hochaggregierter Ebene die Entwicklung der Wirtschaft im jeweils laufenden und im darauffolgenden Jahr vorausgeschätzt. Im Mittelpunkt stehen Aussagen über Tempoänderungen und Wendepunkte von makroökonomischen Variablen im zyklischen Wirtschaftsgeschehen....

This study proposed a stochastic approach to forecast water-shortage probabilities for the coming three months in central Taiwan. Monte Carlo method is used to repeat random sampling from the seasonal weather outlook. For each Monte Carlo trial, the monthly rainfalls and monthly mean...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...