Prediction markets are specific financial markets designed to produce forecasts of future events, such as political election outcomes or economic policy decisions. Empirical studies have exhibited over the years the significant accuracy of these anticipations, which tends to give credit to the...

The main purpose of this paper is to preview the other contributions to this volume of the EIB Papers. In this context, it offers a few additional perspectives. One highlights why energy issues have re-emerged as a matter of policy interest. Another concerns the difference between the...

See also comment 'Investment and growth in the time of climate change' Climate scientists mostly agree that, if current trends continue, global greenhouse-gas emissions are very likely to result in dangerous interference by mankind in the earthâ??s climate. Against this background, the world...

Recognising that environmental and technology externalities affect the development of renewable energy technologies, this paper illustrates how environmental policies induce technological change and how market failures that hinder technological progress weaken the impact of environmental...

We set out to decompose government investment, seeking especially to estimate how much governments in Europe invest in infrastructure in general and transport infrastructure in particular. It is concluded that infrastructure accounts for about one-third of overall government investment in the EU...

This paper estimates euro area banks’ internal target capital ratios and investigates whether banks’ adjustment to the targets affects their credit supply and securities holdings during the financial crisis in 2005–2011. Based on data on listed banks and country-specific macro-variables, a...

[eng] Modeling Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Estimating them for the Euro, Dollar and Yen by Laurent Maurin . This paper starts with a discussion of the problematic of equilibrium exchange rates and then presents NATREX. Based on this, we develop a model that studies both the foreign debt and...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>The international financial crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt crisis brought to the fore the importance of financial conditions to the macro-economy. The complexity of the financial sector means that a wide range of financial variables is needed to fully...</p>

Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market...

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...