This work proposes novel network analysis techniques for multivariate time series. We define the network of a multivariate time series as a graph where vertices denote the components of the process and edges denote non-zero long run partial correlations. We then introduce a two step lasso...

Realized volatilities observed across several assets show a common secular trend and some idiosyncratic pattern which we accommodate by extending the class of Multiplicative Error Models (MEMs). In our model, the common trend is estimated nonparametrically, while the idiosyncratic dynamics are...

AbstractThe following sections are included:OverviewThe Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection ActEvaluation of the Dodd-Frank ACTMarket-Based Measures of Systemic RiskInterconnectednessStress TestsTransparencyNYU Stern Systemic Risk RankingsSystemic Risk MethodologySystemic Risk...

This work proposes novel network analysis techniques for multivariate time series. We define the network of a multivariate time series as a graph where vertices denote the components of the process and edges denote non zero long run partial correlations. We then introduce a two step LASSO...

Realized volatilities measured on several assets exhibit a common secular trend and some idiosyncratic pattern. We accommodate such an empirical regularity extending the class of Multiplicative Error Models (MEMs) to a model where the common trend is estimated nonparametrically while the...

Financial time series analysis has focused on data related to market trading activity. Next to the modeling of the conditional variance of returns within the GARCH family of models, recent attention has been devoted to other variables: first, and foremost, volatility measured on the basis of...

In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value--at--Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two-scales realized volatility, realized kernel, as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...

This paper is concerned with the issues of modeling and projecting the dynamics of volatility when a group of potentially useful predetermined variables is available. We predict realized volatility and value at risk (VaR) with a nested set of multiplicative error models for realized volatility....

The financial econometrics literature on Ultra High-Frequency Data (UHFD) has been growing steadily in recent years. However, it is not always straightforward to construct time series of interest from the raw data and the consequences of data handling procedures on the subsequent statistical...

Nonlinear time series models can exhibit components such as long range trends and seasonalities that may be modeled in a flexible fashion. The resulting unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator can be too heavily parameterized and suboptimal for forecasting purposes. The paper proposes the use...