Using the probabilistic responses from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study the evolution of uncertainty and disagreement associated with inflation forecasts in the United States since 1968. We compare and contrast alternative measures summarizing the distributions of mean forecasts...

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...

This paper asks the question of whether the newly available TIPS yields data can help us achieve a better understanding of the real term structure and the inflation expectations. The yield differential between TIPS and comparable nominal coupon securities is not a direct measure of inflation...

We formulate and estimate a RBC model with structural changes and with bounded rationality, where the economic agents have to learn about the former. This paper investigates whether the agents’ learning process can generate business cycles fluctuations which are empirically plausible....

This paper proposes a method for estimating the probability density of a variable of interest in the presence of model ambiguity. In the first step, each candidate parametric model is estimated minimizing the Kullback-Leibler "distance" (KLD) from a reference nonparametric density estimate....

TIPS breakeven inflation rate, defined as the difference between nominal and TIPS yields of comparable maturities, is potentially useful as a real-time measure of market inflation expectations. In this paper, we provide evidence that a fairly large TIPS liquidity premium existed until recently,...

Standard RBC models predict forecastable movements in output, consumption and hours that differ from those obtained from a VAR estimated on US data. The paper investigates whether introducing bounded rationality and learning generates business cycles properties which are empirically plausible....

We examine the informational content of TIPS yields from the viewpoint of a general 3-factor no-arbitrage term structure model of inflation and interest rates. Our empirical results indicate that TIPS yields contained a "liquidity premium" that was until recently quite large (~1%). Key features...

Stock market fluctuations are likely to be an important determinant of monetary policy decisions because of their potential impact on macroeconomy. At the same time, innovations in fed fund rates affect stock prices as they change the expected future real interest rates. In this paper we apply a...

In the repo market, forward agreements are security-specific (i.e., there are no deliverable substitutes), which makes it an ideal place to measure the value of fluctuations in a security's available supply. In this study, we quantify the scarcity value of Treasury collateral by estimating the...