Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is possible to increase the probability mass toward the tails and to match reasonably...

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S....

Die zur Weltrezession ausgeweitete Finanzmarktkrise setzt im öffentlichen Diskurs auch die Wirtschaftswissenschaften unter Druck, ihre Erklärungs- und Beratungskompetenz werden bezweifelt. In Deutschland kulminiert die Debatte in einem leidenschaftlichen Streit um die künftige Ausrichtung der...