This lecture is about how best to evaluate economic theories in macroeconomics and finance, and the lessons that can be learned from the past use and misuse of evidence. It is argued that all macro/finance models are ‘false’ so should not be judged solely on the realism of their...

This lecture is about how best to evaluate economic theories in macroeconomics and finance, and the lessons that can be learned from the past use and misuse of evidence. It is argued that all macro/finance models are `false' so should not be judged solely on the realism of their assumptions. The...

In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian's index of global real economic activity and the index of OECD...

“Okun’s Law” states a 3:1 proportion between percent growth in U. S. real GNP and percent decrease in the rate of unemployment. This paper argues that this ratio is actually a Pi:1 proportion, heretofore unrecognized because it is displayed through a form of mathematic / harmonic inverse....

In Albers & Albers (Spring, 2013) we demonstrated that the historic development of U.S. real GNP, 1869-present, may be structured in recurring 14-year periods. A steady-state rate of growth of 3.4969% is thereby calculated, generating an increase in real GNP proportional to the famous “Golden...

In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian’s index of global real economic activity and the index of OECD...

The paper develops a general framework for identification, estimation, and hypothesis testing in cointegrated systems when the cointegrating coefficients are subject to (possibly) non-linear and cross-equation restrictions, obtained from economic theory or other relevant a priori information. It...

This paper looks at the history of money and its modern form from a scientific and mathematical point of view. The approach here is to emphasize simplicity. A straightforward model and algebraic formula for a large economy analogous to the ideal gas law of thermodynamics is proposed. It may be...

This paper studies the econometrics of computed dynamic models. Since these models generally lack a closed-form solution, economists approximate the policy functions of the agents in the model with numerical methods. But this implies that, instead of the exact likelihood function, the researcher...

The study presents the evolution of ideas concerning the determinants of the long-term economic growth and the contemporary understandings of them. Based on the achievements in this area, new findings are sought in support of some and in argument of other theses. Based on critical analysis of...