Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.

This paper examines the comprehensive IRS data set of state-state migration flows for evidence that differences in state income tax rates are associated with migration patterns. Using annual data on moves between every pair of states, pooled time-series cross-section regressions indicate that in...

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission

The connections between broad economic indicators in the metropolitan region and their national counterparts are examined by the authors. The authors show that over the last seven years, employment growth has been poor in both absolute terms and relative to the nation, possibly indicating a...

The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent and transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes in a timely manner has led to the development of measures of underlying, or “core,”...

Many argue that the astonishing growth in Americans' stock portfolios in the 1990s has been a major force behind the growth of consumer spending. This article reviews the relationship between stock market movements and consumption. Using various econometric techniques and specifications, the...

The authors document the trends in U.S. saving during the 1980s, giving particular attention to those measures of saving that gauge the growth of productive assets. They go on to assess the effects of these developments on capital formation and the nation's long-term economic potential.

The current expansion has seen record-high levels of transactions in housing, extraordinary growth in the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, and large increases in the amount of funds realized from the refinancing of mortgage debt. Many analysts thus have pointed to the strong housing...