This paper presents three variants of a tractable structural model in which default may take place both expectedly and unexpectedly. The model has the merit of predicting realistically high short term credit spreads. Closed form solutions are provided for corporate bonds (and default swaps) when...

This paper focuses on the key credit risk parameter–Loss Given Default (LGD). We describe its general properties and determinants with respect to seniority of debt, characteristics of debtors or macroeconomic conditions. Further, we illustrate how the LGD can be extracted from market...

In this paper a simulation approach for defaultable yield curve is developed within the Heath et al. (1992) framework. The default event is modelled using the Cox process when the stochastic intensity repre sents the credit spread. The forward credit spread volatility function is affected by the...

We show that option prices can always be obtained as the values of simple optimization problems. This easy remark has two consequences: sensitivity analysis is simplified (by applying the envelope theorem) and numerical procedures are improved. We give two examples of applications: options on...

Recent literature focuses on the systematic and specific components of credit risk (Dichev [1998], Wilson [1998], Jarrow, Lando & Yu [2001]). It is currently assumed, at least implicitly, that financial data are all subject to one latent systematic factor (Jarrow, Lando & Yu [2001], Lucas,...

We use a large panel dataset that includes nearly 31,000 Greek private firms to investigate which variables impact on the prediction of corporate financial distress. Based on a multi-period logit model that accounts for industry effects, we identify six firm-specific variables that best describe...

Systemic risk is a very important but very complex notion in banking and how to measure it adequately is challenging. We introduce a new framework for measuring systemic risk by using a risk-adjusted balance sheet approach. The measure models credit risk of banks as a put option on bank assets,...

Currency and interest rate swaps are subject to a complex, two-sided default risk. Several theoretical papers have recently addressed the problem of pricing this swap credit risk. We implement a recent credit risk pricing model in an attempt to evaluate one of the main lines of research in...

Currency and interest rate swaps are subject to a complex, two-sided default risk. Although several theoretical papers have recently addressed the problem of pricing swap credit risk, the empirical literature is almost non-existent. This is the only study we know which uses actual transaction...

Credit risk models should reflect the observation that the relevant value of collateral is generally not the average value of the asset over all possible states of nature. In most cases, the relevant value of collateral for the lender is its secondary market value in bad states of nature, where...