To make more accurate international comparisons of R&D expenditure, the development of purchasing power parities applicable to R&D expenditure (R&D PPPs) is advocated. These will allow direct comparisons of the quantity of goods and services that can actually be purchased with the R&D...

We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly...

We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly...

The policy package known as Abenomics appears to have influenced the Japanese economy drastically, in particular, in the financial markets. In this paper, focusing on the aggressive monetary easing of Abenomics, the first arrow, we evaluate its role in guiding public perceptions on monetary...

This paper evaluates professional forecasters’ behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts. We find that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, and (ii) there exists a stock–bond dissonance: the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market, but jumpy in the bond...

The Bank of Japan conducted its quantitative easing policy (QEP) from 2001 to 2006, with the policy commitment to maintaining its QEP until the CPI inflation rate became stably zero or higher. We evaluate its effects by using individual survey data on inflation expectations as well as interest...

The motivation behind this article is to verify the efficient market hypothesis as found in traditional financial theories. Participants in Japanese stock markets tend to be heterogeneous; the types of firms to which survey respondents belong can affect the formation of expectations....

In this paper, we use panel data to test whether Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) board members’ forecasts are rational. Rationality is rejected in the sense that forecasts by members are heavily dependent on previous own forecasts and last consensus made in FOMC. Furthermore, we reveal...

The Bank of Japan conducted its quantitative easing policy ( QEP) from 2001 to 2006, with the policy commitment to maintaining its QEP until the CPI inflation rate became stably zero or higher. We evaluate its effects by using individual survey data on inflation expectations as well as interest...