Seasonal adjustment is a widely applied statistical method. National Statistics Institutes around the world apply seasonal adjustment methods, such as X-12-ARIMA or TRAMO-SEATS, on a regular basis to help users interpret movements in the time series and aid in decision making. The seasonal...

In this paper, the authors compare a trigonometrically designed low-pass filter with the Hodrick-Prescott filter and a conventional moving average. The authors examine by means of transfer functions, some practical applications and in comprehensive stochastic simulations how well the three...

The recent economic crisis has altered the dynamics of economic series and, as a consequence, introduced uncertainty in seasonal adjustment of recent years. This problem was discussed in recent workshops at the European Central Bank and at Eurostat in the context of adjustment of the Euro Area...

This paper compares the efficiency of two methods explaining the cyclical movement of a time series at its current end. It refers to a newly developed low-pass filter and the seasonal adjustment method, represented by ASA-II. The empirical analysis starts with a visual comparison of the results...

The German meat market is facing considerable changes. Along with the boom of case-ready and discount stores, butchers and smaller retailers loose market shares, and private labels become widely accepted. The consumers' preferences are often neglected by these trends. This contribution discusses...

Quantifying how Canada’s water yield has changed over time is an important component of the water accounts maintained by Statistics Canada. This study evaluates the movement in the series of annual water yield estimates for Southern Canada from 1971 to 2004. We estimated the movement in the...

In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, we test empirically...

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

This paper investigates empirically the sources of aggregate output growth and the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Niger between 1963 and 2003. A growth accounting analysis indicates that the erosion in output per capita over the sample period is due to the negative growth of...