Zaman serisi analizi ile borsa endeksinin gelecek degerlerini ongorme, finans alaninda oldukca ilgi goren bir konudur. Borsa endeks ongorusu icin kullanilan farkli zaman serisi yontemleri bulunmaktadir. Bu yontemlerden biri, son yillarda bircok arastirmada kullanildigi gorulen Yapay Sinir Aglari...

We study the possibility of completing data bases of a sample of governance, diversification and value creation variables by providing a well adapted method to reconstruct the missing parts in order to obtain a complete sample to be applied for testing the ownership-structure / diversification...

In recent years, support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a...

The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the papers that were presented at the 2011 Madrid International Conference on “Risk Modeling and Management” (RMM2011). The papers cover the following topics: currency hedging...

In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...

The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the papers that were presented at the 2011 Madrid International Conference on “Risk Modelling and Management” (RMM2011). The papers cover the following topics: currency hedging...

The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation are substantially revised versions of the papers that were presented at the 2011 Madrid International Conference on “Risk Modelling and Management” (RMM2011). The papers cover the following topics: currency hedging...

We propose a methodology that can efficiently measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of large portfolios with time-varying volatility and correlations by bringing together the established historical simulation framework and recent contributions to the dynamic factor models literature. We find that the...

In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...

The paper is dedicated to the methodology of calculation, description of the properties and practical appliance of the realized volatility estimation, and its usage in the VaR calculation. The aim of the research is comparing of the realized volatility calculation methods, some of them are...