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Using virtual stock markets with artificial interacting software in- vestors, aka agent-based models (ABMs), we present a method to reverse engineer real-world financial time series. We model financial markets as made of a large number of interacting boundedly rational agents. By op- timizing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008922903
General-to-Specific (GETS) modelling has witnessed major advances over the last decade thanks to the automation of multi-path GETS specification search. However, several scholars have argued that the estimation complexity associated with financial models constitutes an obstacle to multi-path...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543188
negative part of volatility, but unlike VaR, describes volatility dynamics. So it allows forecast calculation of the financial …Volatility is one of the most important characteristics of any financial instrument return. The idea which states that … volatility of financial assets and it corresponds well with the efficient market hypothesis. Therefore, all volatility models use …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010599754
We observe from the late 1990s an increasing phenomenon of volatility on these following markets: Oil (WTI price … of volatility and overcoming its first definition of risk measure, we have evaluated their interdependencies from a VAR … trajectories from FIGARCH model. This paper is presented as follows: Section 1 opens on a definition of the volatility, Section 2 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322714
to information arrivals and hence, volatility can be forecast, based on the up-to-date information. However, when the …. When new information arrives, the market's expectations change. Therefore, prices fluctuate. Thus, price volatility is due … frame work to study risk and return, so that, we can gain a better understanding of market volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005006809
We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies … computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005797706
We analyze several measures of volatility (realized variance, bipower variation and squared daily returns) as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005812866
gains over the equation by equation approach using a four variable fully interdependent model with different volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005731544
Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255481
assets. Building on this idea, we propose the use of a highly flexible and tractable model to forecast the volatility of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010542047